Scenario modelling with morphological analysis

Author
Johansen, Iver
Date Issued
2017
Keywords
Forsvarsplanlegging
Scenarioer
Permalink
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12242/847
https://publications.ffi.no/123456789/847
DOI
10.1016/j.techfore.2017.05.016
Collection
Articles
Description
Johansen, Iver. Scenario modelling with morphological analysis. Technological forecasting & social change 2017 ;Volum 126. s. 116-125
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Abstract
Scenarios can serve as points of reference in the future for decisions that we have to make today. Morphological analysis provides a structured method for ensuring consistency and relevance in scenario development. This paper outlines a method for characterizing the entire solution space of future outcomes in a given subject field, and suggests a process for classification of an all-encompassing and mutually exclusive set of scenario classes. The method is illustrated with an example case, taken from Norwegian defense planning, of establishing a scenario set that encompasses all external security challenges to Norway as a security actor. Four parameters are defined – Actor, Goal, Method and Means. Each parameter is defined in terms of an exhaustive set of possible states or values. A Cross Consistency Assessment is conducted to exclude solutions deemed to be impossible on either purely logical grounds (internal consistency) or based on real world assessments (external consistency). Six scenario classes are defined: Strategic Attack, Limited Attack, Coercive Diplomacy, Terrorist Attack, Criminality and Military Peace-time Operations.
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