Erfaringer med AVAL : simuleringsprogram for sårbarhet og våpenvirkning

AVAL is a simulation model for weapon effect and target vulnerability. Basically, it calculates the probability for a target to get a specific damage when fired upon by a specific weapon. Like every other simulation program, AVAL is dependent on good input data. The input data for AVAL is a weapon model and a target model. The target model describes the geometry of the target, specifies how much damage each component can sustain before it’s rendered inoperative, and describes the consequences of a set of damaged components in the form of a fault tree. The weapon model describes the sensors, the penetration capacity of the warhead and the forming of behind armour debris. Through an agreement with FMV, FFI has had the simulation program AVAL, version 4.2, for free trial until the summer 2003. In return, FFI shall provide a report on our experiences with AVAL. FFI have developed one target model and a number of weapon models, and conducted several simulations, primarily against targets that came with the model. In this report we explain how we have operated the program, and what we consider to be its strengths and weaknesses. FFI has decided to acquire AVAL on a commercial basis after the expiration of our free trial period.